THE SPORTS ADVISORS
WORLD SERIES
Philadelphia (9-5) at N.Y. Yankees (10-4)
The World Series shifts to back to Yankee Stadium where the Yankees will try once again to wrap up their record 27th world title when they send Andy Pettitte (17-8, 4.06 ERA) to the mound on three days’ rest for Game 6 while the Phillies counter with Pedro Martinez (5-2, 3.28).
Facing elimination, Philadelphia came out swinging in Game 5 on Monday, jumping out to 6-1 lead after three innings and holding on for an 8-6 home victory. Chase Utley hit two more home runs – giving him five in this World Series – and Cliff Lee picked up his second series win despite allowing a postseason-high five runs in seven innings.
Philadelphia is now 20-8 in the playoffs since the beginning of last year’s run to the World Series title. Additionally, the Phillies are on positive runs 5-2 on the highway, 7-3 in playoff road games, 11-5 as an underdog, 9-3 as a road ‘dog, 37-18 against left-handed starters, 38-15 after a day off and 4-0 on Wednesday. On the downside, Charlie Manuel’s squad has lost 12 of 17 interleague games (all versus the A.L. East).
New York, looking for its 27th championship overall and first since 2000, had a three-game losing skid snapped on Monday. Still, the Yankees enter Game 6 on a plethora of positive runs, including 51-21 overall, 42-11 at home, 6-1 in playoff home games, 9-3 in World Series home games, 9-1 as a playoff favorite, 8-2 in interleague play (all against the N.L. East), 59-26 when hosting National League opponents, 19-7 following a defeat, 47-18 against right-handed starters and 7-0 in interleague play against righties.
The Yankees are 13-1 all-time when taking a 3-1 lead in the World Series. The last time a team overcame a 3-1 World Series deficit was the Royals in 1985, but New York has lost three straight games just twice since the All-Star break.
These teams have now split eight meetings this season, including a three-game interleague series in the Bronx in May. Going back to 1999, the Yankees are 11-7 against the Phillies. The visitor has won nine of the last 13 head-to-head matchups.
Making just his second start since Sept. 30, Martinez held the Yankees to three runs on six hits over six innings in Game 2 of this series at Yankee Stadium on Thursday, but he lost 3-1 as he was outdueled by A.J. Burnett. Including a Game 2 start at Dodger Stadium in the NLCS, Martinez has given up three runs on eight hits in 13 postseason innings (2.08 ERA), walking two and striking out 11. However, the Phillies lost both games by scores of 3-1 and 2-1 after going 8-1 in the veteran right-hander’s first nine starts this year. Martinez has allowed three runs or less in eight straight starts and 10 of 11 since making his Phillies debut on Aug. 12.
Martinez is now 3-2 with a 4.28 ERA in six road starts this year, 6-3 with a 3.22 ERA in 15 career playoff games (13 starts), 12-14 with a 3.43 ERA in 39 lifetime appearances (38 starts) against New York (playoffs included) and 8-6 with a 3.38 ERA in 20 games (18 starts) in the Bronx.
Pettitte improved to 3-0 in this postseason on Saturday, guiding New York to an 8-5 victory in Philadelphia in Game 3, despite yielding four runs on five hits and three walks with seven strikeouts in six innings. New York is now 3-1 behind Pettitte in the playoffs, with the lefty giving up nine runs (all earned) on 22 hits in 25 innings (3.24 ERA). Prior to Saturday’s six-inning effort, Pettitte had gone exactly 6 1/3 innings in his first three postseason outings.
With Pettitte on the hill, New York is on incredible runs of 11-4 overall, 79-38 at home, 81-38 as a home favorite, 20-8 as a chalk overall, 7-1 in interleague play and 29-9 on Wednesday. Including one solid playoff outing against the Angels, the 37-year-old is 7-4 with a 4.40 ERA in 17 starts in new Yankee Stadium this season. The all-time leader in postseason victories, Pettitte is 17-9 with a 3.88 ERA in 39 career playoff starts, and with the Game 3 victory in Philadelphia, he’s 3-2 with a 3.97 ERA in eight career starts against the Phillies.
All three games in Philadelphia flew over the posted total after the first five meetings between these teams this season – all in the Bronx – stayed under the posted price.
The Yankees are now 5-2-1 “over” in their last eight overall in this postseason, but otherwise they’re still on “under” rolls of 35-17-3 at home (6-0-1 at home in these playoffs), 12-4-1 as a favorite, 6-2-1 after a day off, 17-9 in interleague play, 4-0 in interleague home games, 16-7 in the World Series, 7-0 in World Series home games, 8-3-2 against right-handed starters and 6-0 on Wednesday. Finally, behind Pettitte, the under is on runs of 55-25-3 overall, 10-3 at home, 12-3-1 against the National League (10-3 vs. the N.L. East) and 46-21-1 when Pettitte is favored.
On the flip side, Philadelphia carries “over” trends of 21-6-2 overall (6-1 last seven), 9-2-1 in these playoffs, 5-1-1 against the A.L. East, 7-3 as an underdog, 5-2-1 as a playoff pup, 5-1 against left-handed starters and 5-1 after a day off. However, the under is 5-2 in Martinez’s last seven starts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
NBA
Phoenix (4-0, 2-2 ATS) at Orlando (3-1 SU and ATS)
The surprising Suns continue a five-game, seven-day Eastern Conference road swing when they invade Amway Arena for a clash with Dwight Howard and the Magic.
Phoenix opened its road trip with last night’s 104-96 victory over the Heat as a four-point underdog, remaining unbeaten on the season and extending its winning streak to seven dating to the end of last season. The Suns have scored 104 or more throughout the winning streak, averaging 114.6 points per game, yet they’re just 4-3 ATS during the run.
After three consecutive blowout wins and covers to open the season, Orlando went to Detroit on Tuesday and was stunned by the Pistons 85-80 as an 8½-point road favorite. Going back to last February, the Magic are still 13-4 SU in their last 17 regular-season home games, but just 8-9 ATS. That includes a 111-99 rout of Phoenix as a 7½-point favorite on March 3, the Suns’ lone trip to Orlando last year.
Prior to losing in Orlando, the Suns had won six straight meetings in this rivalry, going just 2-4 ATS. In fact, the Magic have cashed in seven of the last nine meetings overall and four of the last five in Orlando. Still, the ‘dog is on a 7-2 ATS roll over those past nine meetings, with the visitor cashing in six of the last seven.
Phoenix has alternated spread-covers in its last six road games. Meanwhile, dating to last year’s playoffs, the Magic are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven against the Western Conference and 1-4 ATS in their last four against the Pacific Division (all against the Lakers in last year’s NBA Finals).
For Phoenix, the under is on runs of 7-2 overall (3-1 this year), 4-0 on the road (2-0 this year) and 7-1 against the Southeast Division, but the over is 6-1 in its last seven when playing the second night in a row and 21-8 in its last 29 on Wednesday. Orlando carries “under” trends of 8-1 against the Western Conference, 4-1 against the Pacific Division (all in the NBA Finals) and 7-3 on Wednesday. Finally, the over is 8-3 in the last 11 Suns-Magic battles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO
L.A. Lakers (3-1, 0-4 ATS) at Houston (3-1 SU and ATS)
The surprising Rockets go for their fourth straight win when they entertain the Lakers at the Toyota Center in a rematch of last year’s thrilling Western Conference semifinal playoff series.
Los Angeles opened a brief two-game Midwest road trip with last night’s 101-98 overtime win at Oklahoma City. Kobe Bryant shook off affects from the flu and scored a game-high 31 points in 46 minutes, while Andrew Bynum (22 points, 10 rebounds) and Ron Artest (20 points, six assists) also aided in the win. However, the Lakers failed to cover as a seven-point road favorite and they’ve yet to cash a ticket this year (all as a favorite).
Since falling 96-87 at Portland on opening night, Houston has pulled off three straight upset wins over the Warriors (108-107 on the road), Blazers (111-107 at home) and Jazz (113-96 on the road). In Monday’s rout of Utah as an eight-point road underdog, the Rockets shot 50 percent from the field, going 10-for-19 from three-point range. Eight players scored in double figures, and they outscored the Jazz 59-39 in the second half.
The Rockets took the heavily favored Lakers to seven games in last year’s playoffs, eventually falling 89-70 as a 13-point underdog in the decisive Game 7 in Los Angeles. The home team won and covered the final four meetings. The Lakers also won and covered all three regular-season matchups against Houston last year, improving to 8-3 ATS in the last 11 series clashes. L.A. has also covered in nine of its last 13 trips to the Toyota Center, and the SU winner is on a perfect 12-0 ATS roll in this rivalry.
The Lakers had covered in four straight road games going back to last year’s NBA Finals against Orlando prior to last night’s ATS setback, and they’re 4-1 ATS in their last five on Wednesday. Houston has covered in four of five at home dating to its playoff series against L.A. in May, but is 1-5 ATS in its last six on Wednesday.
Los Angeles is riding “under” streaks of 36-17-1 overall (2-2 this year), 13-7 on the road, 10-3 against the Western Conference and 5-0 versus the Southwest Division. Likewise, the under for Houston is 7-2 in its last nine at home and 7-3 in its last 10 when playing on one day of rest. Finally, the final four playoff contests between these teams last spring stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and UNDER
Dallas (3-1 SU and ATS) at New Orleans (1-3 SU and ATS)
One night after an impressive come-from-behind home win over Utah, the Mavericks head east to New Orleans Arena for a Southwest Division clash with the struggling Hornets.
Dallas outscored the Jazz 44-18 in the final quarter on Tuesday to not only pull out a 96-85 win, but also cover as a 6½-point home favorite, improving to 3-0 SU and ATS since a season-opening home loss to Washington. Dirk Nowitzki scored 29 of his 40 points in the final quarter, as the Mavericks overcame a 67-52 deficit. Dallas is struggling offensively, totaling just 91, 94, 93 and 96 points in its first four games, but it is playing strong defense, yielding just 87.8 points per game on less than 43 percent shooting
New Orleans has played three of its first four games on the road, losing all three, including Monday’s 117-111 setback at New York as a three-point road favorite. The Hornets’ lone home game was a 97-92 win over Sacramento, but they failed to cover as a hefty 12-point favorite. New Orleans has been held under 100 points in 13 of its last 16 contests, and defensively, the Hornets are giving up 104.8 ppg (47 percent shooting) this year.
Including a 2008 first-round playoff series between these teams, New Orleans has won five of the last six meetings (4-2 ATS) and seven of the last nine (6-3 ATS). The host has covered in 10 of the last 13 in this series – with the Hornets going 6-1 ATS in the last seven in the Big Easy – and the favorite is 20-7-1 ATS in the last 28 head-to-head battles.
Dallas’ three-game ATS winning streak comes on the heels of an 0-6 pointspread nosedive, and the Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last six divisional games and 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 on Wednesday.
Going back to last year, the Hornets have lost 13 of their last 17 games both SU and ATS (playoffs included) going 1-8 ATS in the last nine (0-3 ATS at home). Additionally, New Orleans is in pointspread slumps of 1-5 at home, 3-13 against Western Conference teams and 1-4 on Wednesday.
The over is 7-3 in the Mavericks’ last 10 road games, 7-3 in their last 10 on Wednesday and 4-1 in their last five against division rivals, but they’ve stayed under the total in seven straight games when playing on back-to-back nights. New Orleans carries “under” trends of 5-2 overall, 13-3 at home, 4-0 when playing on one day of rest and 15-6 in Southwest Division contests. Finally, the under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams, but the over is 5-2-1 in the last eight at New Orleans Arena.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS
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